Preliminary Values

I am going to use three values as a preliminary ranking/points system - Offense, Defense, and Mobility.

Offense will be the average number of wounds caused per turn (one shooting plus one melee phase) against a 4+ save. 4+ will be used to make rend relevant without some extrapolation, and because (to the best of my knowledge) -3 is the highest rend on any unit, at least as a base stat. I will not be assuming that 1 automatically fails or that 6 automatically succeeds. As this number is quite small compared to the others, it will be multiplied by 10 as a baseline.

Defense will be the average number of wounds the model can take before dying. If the model ignores some amount of rend, for the sake of preliminary numbers, this will be applied as an extra .5 save per point of rend ignored. This is to account for most instances of ignoring rend only ignoring certain rend values rather than reducing it, so while valuable, this cannot be said to be as good as armour save. I am then going to add the unit's bravery reduced by 6, as this seems like a reasonable assumed 'average' for now, as well as being the point at which the unit may lose models for taking a single casualty. Depending on the size of the other values on average, I will either add the bravery value in whole or half as a starting point.

Mobility will be the range the model could move on a turn assuming it took every opportunity to move (run or charge, etc) at an average roll (7, in the case of a normal run or charge). This will be very similar for all units without major movement advantages or disadvantages.

I will be providing three sets of numbers in relation to abilities that would modify the above 'conditionally' (e.g. bonuses from unit size) - one assuming 0% uptime, one assuming 50% uptime, and one assuming 100% uptime.

For now, I will not be addressing spells or other non quantifiable special abilities. I have not entirely worked out how monsters or other models with stats that vary based on number of wounds taken. For now, I will try base statlines only, but will think on this further.

Intent and Starting Point

     Introduction
The intent behind this blog/project/whatever is to look at the Age of Sigmar Warscrolls, and attempt to establish a point or 'comp' system with a decent mathematical basis rather than opinion and iteration based on performance, or excessive simplification.

    Establishing a Baseline
In hopes of establishing a baseline for point and comparison metrics, 'core' infantry units will be analysed, and metrics will then be applied to more powerful units to ensure that they scale appropriately.

    Starting Metrics
Initially, metrics will be developed to compare survivability, mobility, and offensive strength. Survivability will start as number of wounds required on average to remove one model. Mobility will begin very simply as average movement including a run or charge per turn, with a modifier applied for teleportation or flight. Offensive strength will start as average wounds caused per turn with all attacks. These may or may not change based on experiences in development and application.

    Predicted Difficulties
Some special abilities may be very difficult to account for mathematically. First, accounting for terrain-passing movement abilities is incredibly subjective - not only is it difficult to assign a value to the ability relative to 'normal' movement, but the value will change based on the terrain on the table. Second, many units have situational bonuses - being in terrain, having large numbers, being against specific enemy types, or synergies between specific units. Third, accounting for spells and similar abilities will be difficult, especially due to the number of options - a value will likely have to be placed on a single spell 'slot' which can then be added to any of the overall metrics. To settle these issues, metrics will have to be compared with different assumed levels of 'uptime' for situational abilities, and levels of effect for synergistic abilities, likely related to the gap between the affected unit without the buff, and their level of performance with.